Well, it’s been an interesting week so far. Can’t wait for the next 207. Perhaps now more than ever it is important to stop and enjoy the moments of lovely. The flashes of humanity. The instants of beauty. Last week, we were at a stoplight after leaving the gym. In front of us, across the street, was a non-descript, single-floor office building. We’ve been at the stoplight countless times and never paid the building in front of us any attention whatsoever. It might have been a dentist office, if memory serves, but the building is so adept at fading into the background who knows for sure—for all we know it could have housed ninjas, or fusion researchers or the staff of DOGE.
But this time, movement caught our eye. The blinds were wide open, and the lights were bright. The motion we saw? A man and a woman dancing. They appeared to be practicing, working on their moves, figuring out the choreography. They were graceful, and even in silhouette emanated a feeling of aspiration. We are not a dance expert but we do fancy ourselves a judge of lovely moments. We don’t capture the moment particularly well in the photo below but the scene in front of us was a kind of Edward Hopper Bob Fosse haze, maybe with a few drops of Norman Rockwell quaint realism. The dusk light maybe helped, as did the moment serving as an intrusion on the week’s worries, the world’s concerns, the next day’s tasks. So we ask you to take a moment to dance with Japan’s India rail efforts, which countries are still above fertility replacement level, and China’s real economic growth. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, the Questlove of international information, the Jon Batiste of global data, all interviewed by Terry Gross.
We’ve begun tracking the new U.S. presidential administration’s instances of law breaking and acts of corruption. We plan on updating it weekly on Sundays. Our first listing was last Sunday. Check it out.
Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.
The Darjeeling Shinkansen
In the post-American world, we eagerly follow new alliances and country interactions. One of the most intriguing developments is the growing partnership between India and Japan. In recent years, the two developed a Special Strategic and Global Partnership. They have strengthened their security relations through the 2020 Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (which sounds vaguely sensual but is not and is in fact very important). They are both democratic and worry about China’s influence in the region. There is also a natural economic fit. Japan can support India’s economic development through its technological expertise, a collaboration we are keenly interested in observing. And, in fact, Japan is helping India develop its own bullet trains. Japan, of course, is famous for its Shinkansen trains, which are fast, reliable and on time. India’s rail network, er, are not known for that. But they are working together to “introduce the advanced Shinkansen E10 bullet train, also known as the Alfa-X, in 2029-30.” This project aims to cut travel time between Mumbai and Ahmedabad to just two hours, a significant improvement. As we wrote last week, it is likely the future is Indian, and Japan will help make it a more successful future.
Be My Baby
The world in many ways is getting smaller. And later this century that will be the case for population. More and more countries have fertility rates under the replacement level of 2.1. In fact, 108 countries, more than half of the world’s total, now have fertility rates below the replacement level. Of the 94 countries with fertility rates above the replacement level, 53 are in Africa. The eight countries with the highest fertility rates are in Africa. However, even the fertility rates in these countries are decreasing. Asia has 12 countries with above replacement level fertility rates, almost all of which are in Central Asia, including Uzbekistan. With the exception of Afghanistan, their rates are all below 4 and falling. In the Middle East, eight countries have fertility rates above the replacement level, though most are below 3. There are several large important trends in the world. Aging demographics is arguably the most important and drives some of the other trends. Many countries are working to reverse falling fertility rates. But so far nobody seems to know how.
China Corner: China’s Real Growth
China’s target for GDP growth in 2024 was 5 percent and lo and behold they grew exactly, drum roll please, 5 percent. However, much like our predictions that the Mariners will win the World Series, China’s official data isn’t always right. Rhodium Group, which independently calculates China’s GDP growth, estimates 2024 growth to be around 2.4 to 2.8 percent. If accurate, this marks the second consecutive year that China’s growth rate has lagged behind that of the United States. How does Rhodium make these estimates? They look at the components of GDP: investment, government consumption, household consumption, and net exports. It’s difficult to rely on Chinese official data on anything nowadays, including these components. For example, Rhodium notes that despite Chinese official data to the contrary, “In 2024, investment growth is likely flat at best and probably declining again, led by the slowdown in local government investment, particularly in infrastructure.” Rhodium further notes that “Some argue that GDP growth has been overstated by 3 pp for each of the past three years, which suggests that the overall size of China’s economy is around 10% smaller (or $1.7 trillion) than official data imply.” This would not surprise us. But that China’s economy is doing less well than claimed is not an argument that China is less powerful. China’s exports grew four times faster than global trade, it continues to advance in technology, including AI, and it is rapidly expanding its military capabilities. The next few years will present an increasingly dangerous but not as economically robust China.
