The only time we see television news is when we’re at the gym sweating off the years and gaze up at the screens glowing at us. Our gym displays a variety of cable news. They’re all the same in one respect. As always, it’s about mayhem and murder—this week the if it bleeds it leads story de jour is the 15-year-old-girl-exception-proves-the-rule who shot up her school before taking aim at herself. The other story cable news continue to push is the saga of the young man (the rule) who shot another human being in the back. We know from numerous studies that all of this causes copycat killers, the contagion effect.
The argument for why these news stations cover these stories ad nauseum is ratings. And yet we read that cable news ratings are dwindling. So, we guess the instinct to cover these stories is due to one of the two strongest forces in the universe:* inertia. The producers, editors, anchors and reporters are like news zombies, wide-legged and lumbering to the nearest murder, their eyes blank, their minds more so. All of this makes us wonder if the contagion effect works in reverse. If the news instead covered the people doing amazing things—finding cures for diseases, developing new technologies, creating new art, saving pets, helping their neighbors—would we see young mentally ill boys and girls inspired in their craziness to create more cures, technologies and art? But screw it, we bring you news of a debt laden world, which kinds of cancers kill us and the complicated nature of China’s exports. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, the hypocrite of international information, the pure as the driven snow of global data.
*The second strongest force, as a colleague told me years ago, is the desire to rewrite someone else’s writing (you’re doing it right now, aren’t you?).
Yesterday, we published a new Substack article, “The Silencing of the Chimes: America’s Waning Role as a Beacon of Democracy.” Check it out or you’ll get coal in your stocking (Santa, like many of today’s leaders, has become a crazed maniac).
Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.
Deep End Of The Debt Pool
The world is awash in IOUs. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development recently released its annual report on debt in the world. The title of the report tells it all: “A World of Debt: A Growing Burden to Global Prosperity.” In 2023, global debt “reached a record US$97 trillion.” The U.S. is certainly no stranger to debt, and neither is China, but the UNCTAD report concentrates on the large challenges for the developing world which pay a higher interest rate on their debt. Last year, a record 54 countries spent more than 10 percent of their revenues on interest payments. For comparison, the U.S. spends just over 8 percent. Nearly 3.5 billion people live in countries where more is spent on interest payments than on health or education. Many of these countries are in Africa but there are also a fair number in Asia and in Latin America. As you can see in the second chart below, developed countries hold more debt, but their larger economies make them more capable of managing interest payments. (Though the U.S. is entering a danger zone, and if the incoming administration enacts its promised spending and tax policies, it could quickly plunge into the deep end of the debt pool). While UNCTAD does not anticipate any defaults next year, this mounting debt will inevitably need to be addressed.
What Kind Of Cancer?
We’ve known a couple of folks recently who have died of cancer. While significant progress has been made in treating cancer, it still kills a lot of people all over the world. However, the prevalence of different cancer types varies across countries. Our World in Data provides a map illustrating the leading causes of cancer deaths in men (we’re not sure why women were ignored in the study) by country (see below). Lung cancer (represented by green) is the leading cancer death in many countries, including in Europe, Russia and the United States. This is due to smoking. We’re always amazed when we see a young person lighting up a cigarette or vaping and have to resist the urge to run up to them, grab them by the lapels, and ask what impelled them to start inhaling smoke into their lungs. Fortunately for them and us, we never follow through (and very rarely are they wearing a jacket with lapels). We were surprised that prostate cancer is the leading cancer death in so many countries, particularly in South America. According to Our World in Data, “Although it has high survival rates in richer countries, it is common and can reach late stages before diagnosis, which limits treatment options.” Liver cancer is the leading cancer death in Mongolia, Thailand and Egypt. Alcoholism and hepatitis can cause liver cancer but we wouldn’t have pegged those three countries for having a higher number of people with those two ailments. So, the moral of the story, apparently, is don’t smoke and drink too much and somehow, even in an impoverished country, have your prostate examined.
China Corner: It’s Complicated
What with a new U.S. administration coming in that wants to solve all the problems of the world in partnership with China while slapping tariffs on countries left and right, it’s easy to lose track of what is happening in the big picture of trade. As we and many others have pointed out, China is exporting more and importing less. But recently folks are reminding the world that while China’s exports to the U.S. are flat, its exports to other countries are on the rise, as you can see in the first chart below from David Goldman. From there it gets complicated. China is exporting more to countries like Vietnam and Mexico, which in turn are increasing their exports to the U.S., as shown in the next chart. Some interpret this data as evidence that China is simply evading tariffs by routing goods through Vietnam and Mexico. There is a bit of that. But what is really happening is more goods are being assembled in Vietnam and Mexico (and other countries) using Chinese components. China’s manufacturing sector followed a similar path decades ago, assembling goods using components from other countries Over time, China transitioned from manufacturing simple goods to more complex products, eventually producing more and more of the components domestically. Ten years ago, Vietnam was assembling shoes. Now it also assembles products like air pods. It will probably eventually make more and more of the components. Of course, the new U.S. administration will probably slap tariffs on Vietnamese goods which might affect this equation. And it should be noted that China’s exports are reaching crazy levels mostly at the expense of the EU as Brad Setser’s chart below shows. World trade has been changing for years, it likely will continue to change even more in the coming years.
