Every group needs its captain. The person who keeps them organized, in touch with each other, connected in ways big and small. In our case, Brian is our Captain, or Cap’n,’ as we and our college friends call him. Over the years he has organized nearly annual gatherings of our friends, keeps in touch with everyone, knows when someone’s family member is ill and generally is the connective tissue to a range of people living all over the country and world. Last weekend he organized a reunion in Portland—the one in Oregon, not the pretender in Maine. We all went to Willamette University, located in Salem (the one in Oregon not the witchy pretender in Massachusetts) about an hour south of Portland. You probably know the college because Harvard claims it’s the Willamette of the East. We had a wonderful time catching up with friends, some of whom we still routinely see, and others we have not seen since graduating from college three years ago (or maybe it was longer ago than that—despite being a math major, our age counting skills are not strong).
We bet you all have your own captain, if not Cap’n. We suggest you salute and cherish them…and make fun of them from time to time–subordination is good for morale. Right, Lieutenant Brian? And we salute our Indian future, cherish migrants helping the world, and view the end of rule of law in America with the TikTok shenanigans. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, issuing executive orders on international information, never pardoning errant global data.
We would be remiss not to note the election of Ichiro to the Baseball Hall of Fame. He fell just one vote short of unanimous election. Not voting for Ichiro is like saying “I hate kittens and puppies.” That lone baseball hall of fame voter is clearly a psychopath.
Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.
Our Indian Future
We increasingly believe that the fate of the world hinges on what happens in India, both economically and politically.* Economically, the key question is whether India will continue to develop, including in the manufacturing sector. Last week, we noted China is actively trying to block India’s manufacturing development, at least in terms of Apple building iPhones. Even with that, electronics exports out of India continue to increase. One industrial policy analyst on Twitter observed, ‘The Apple-Foxconn investment is creating a cluster effect in the electronics sector, suggesting the potential for broader industry growth.” This, of course, is what happened in China twenty years ago. As you can see in the chart below, India’s manufacturing output has gone way up though as a percentage of GDP it has gone down. India’s economy grew at a 7 percent rate last year, slightly lower than its growth in 2023. However, this is still a strong performance. It is important that India avoids overinvestment in pursuit of high GDP growth rates, as China did a decade ago. India’s exports have risen, as have its imports, including for components used in assembling finished products. India still has significant progress to make in fully developing its economy. If India can solidify its position as an economic powerhouse while maintaining its robust democracy, it will have an enormously positive impact on the world.
*Expect a Substack soon expanding on this idea.
Migrants Are The Great Redistributors
Despite current attitudes and trends, we maintain our prediction that a Great Immigrant Competition will arise in the future as most countries’ populations age. Immigration has many benefits, including the remittances migrants send back to their home countries. A recent article in Our World in Data examines this phenomenon in detail. Migrants move to new countries for better opportunities, higher earnings, and the ability to provide for their families. As multiple studies have shown, this does not lead to lower wages in the host country. On the contrary, immigration benefits not only the migrants but also the host country’s citizens and the migrants’ families back home. Not just win-win but a triple win. Our World in Data, using World Bank data, reports that migrants sent $781 billion to their families in 2021. Our World in Data highlights that this amount surpasses global foreign aid. In fact, “the amount of money sent or brought back by migrants was more than three times larger than foreign aid in 2021.” And the overwhelming majority of that money being sent is to poor countries not to rich ones. And this money is making a real difference back home: “In low-income and lower-middle-income countries, an extra $100 from money sent or brought back by migrants can be the difference between a child going hungry and a child getting enough to eat. Research shows that money sent back by migrants reduces child malnutrition, helping children grow healthier and stronger.” We are in a transitional period where folks are lashing out against immigrants. This sentiment will change eventually, and we can facilitate that change by remembering that migration is a win-win-win proposition.
China Corner: Tik Tok, Tik Tok, Tik Tok
We suppose this is as much of an America Corner post as it is China. Sigh. Faux dictator Donald Trump, as we’re sure you read, signed an executive order delaying the ban on TikTok for 75 days. The TikTok law does not include any provision for such a delay. The law—you remember those? —provides for a 90-day extension, if Congress certifies there is tangible divestment of the company occurring. No such certification was made, no divestment is occurring. So Trump broke the law, not for the first time, not even the first time that day, and certainly not for the last time in this second administration (America is no longer a land of laws and so we feel no compunction to follow them ourselves—we’re tempted to speed recklessly on the highways, walk out of stores with food and candy, all while wearing a Donald Trump mask screaming we’re going to shoot you down on 5th Avenue if you try to stop us). In listening to various analysis of TikTok and the law, we find them lacking. While we were not particularly in favor of the TikTok law, it passed with an overwhelming majority in Congress and was unanimously upheld as constitutional by both an appeals court and the Supreme Court. Contrary to what we heard a number of media analysts claim, China has transferred data back to China, and there is evidence that TikTok manipulates information on its platform to favor China. It is also far more invasive than other social media platforms, including tracking keystrokes on your phone no matter which app you are using. Biden should have enforced the law and so should have Trump. If presidents don’t like the law, then go back to Congress to have them amend or repeal it. In the meantime, we put on a helmet, get in our car and head for the freeway.
