Zane turned 21 on Tuesday. An impressive accomplishment and we would have taken him out for drinks except for the fact he is our 90-year-old Mom’s 21-year-old cat. Although come to think of it, there surely must be some “man and an old cat walk into bar” jokes that we could fulfill. At any rate, whatever my Mom and Zane are doing, we should all be emulating them if we wish to live to a ripe old age. A few years ago, our Mom was admitted to the hospital and after a long day of dealing with doctors, nurses and other crucial accoutrements of the health care world, we went back to her house and there was poor Zane staring at us, wanting to know what we had done with his companion. Our Mom had not stayed overnight somewhere for many years and when we left the house with her that morning it was clear that all was definitely not peachy keen. This was the first time in many years Zane had been separated from her for an extended time.
We petted Zane, fed him and then busily took care of a million details when such an event happens. Eventually we fell asleep on the couch, only to wake in the middle of the night and find Zane perched on the back of it, staring down at us, obviously quite concerned. We sat up and petted the poor guy some more, tried to explain that his person would be home as soon as she was able. But, of course, our Mom did not come home, she was in the hospital for a stay and then moved to a physical rehab joint and then eventually into assisted living. And that is where we brought Zane. It was surely an adjustment for him, especially at the then ripe old age of 18. But he adjusted like a champ and before you knew it he and our Mom were not only thriving but he was the toast of the staff. Whenever they come up to our Mom’s apartment, Zane is treated like the feline king that he is. So we urge you to raise a glass and toast the 21–year-old Zane while we pour a tall one for Ukraine’s military success, see Russia’s Molotov cocktails no longer working in Africa, and turn to hard drugs to understand the U.S. and China. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, better than an aperitif of international information, a cold bracer of global data.
Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.
The Russia Stall
Lost in Iran War news and all the other crazy events and information hurtling towards us like a drunk bowling ball, is progress by Ukraine against Russia. Putin continues to toss tens of thousands of unfortunate lives into the front lines with little to show for it. In fact, according to Russia Matters’ analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) territorial-control data, Russian forces lost a net 46 square miles of Ukrainian territory from April 7 to May 5, 2026. In the previous four-week period, Russia had still managed a net gain of 17 square miles. In other words, the line, at least over the last month, moved backward for Russia. In general, ISW’s assessment is Russia over the past year has accomplished little. Ukraine continues to successfully utilize drones to strike deep into Russian territory. This is making Russian supply lines unstable. In fact, ISW and other analysts believe this might even put Crimea at risk. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Ukraine is not suddenly on the verge of a sweeping breakthrough. Russia still occupies about 20 percent of Ukraine. But Ukraine continues to mount an amazingly successful defense and even has retaken some territory. At the same time, Europe finally seems serious about fully supporting Ukraine materially. Ukraine’s efforts against Russia continues to be the most important military defense of democracy in the world, and now all done without what was once the most important democracy in the world, America. We live in a new era, and Ukraine provides hope that it will ultimately be a successful one.
Russia’s African Misadventures
Russia’s not doing too well in Africa either. For over a decade Mali has battled jihadist insurgencies, and for the past four years it has done so alongside Russian mercenaries. First there was Wagner, then, after Prigozhin’s plane fell out of the sky (remember him?), the Kremlin-controlled rebrand known as Africa Corps. As many as 2,500 Russian personnel were reportedly deployed in Mali as of early 2026, with smaller contingents propping up juntas in Burkina Faso, Niger, the Central African Republic, Libya, and Equatorial Guinea. How is that going? Last month, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin and the Azawad Liberation Front launched an unprecedented coordinated attack and recaptured the city of Kidal from the Africa Corps and the Malian military, killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara with a suicide car bomb in Kati, and forced Africa Corps to negotiate safe corridors for evacuation. Kidal had been the centerpiece of the junta’s “Russia delivers” narrative since 2023. Not anymore. Russia also meddles in Africa by conning Africans into becoming cannon fodder in Ukraine. Ukraine says more than 1,700 Africans have been enlisted in Russia’s armed forces, many lured by promises of jobs: drivers, security guards, cooks. These folks have no military background, no training, and were put on the front lines. Recruits told CNN they were promised $13,000 signing bonuses and $3,500 monthly salaries, then forced to sign Russian-language military contracts with no translator, had their passports confiscated, and were deployed with minimal training. Kenya’s parliamentary majority leader told parliament at least 1,000 Kenyans have been enlisted; South Africa had to repatriate a group of men after President Ramaphosa personally phoned Putin. So Africans are being deceived into dying for Russia in Ukraine while Russia is failing to keep Africans alive in Africa. Quite a value proposition.
China Corner: Is it Poker?
Earlier this week we saw multiple headlines in national news outlets such as The New York Times and Washington Post asserting that Trump was headed to China with a weak hand. Even before Trump took a croquet mallet to democracy (thank God he doesn’t yet have a sledgehammer), we were not a fan of the U.S. – China competition framing. To us, this has always been a story about the need for China to liberalize, regardless of the U.S. one way or another. But even if the frame that folks are going to use is U.S.-China competition, we don’t think the U.S. has a weak hand. We hope to soon revamp and update our U.S. – China index which tracks data of the two countries across multiple domains. The Index can help answer questions about strong and weak hands. China and the U.S. are the two largest economies in the world. China in recent years has extended its lead in several technology sectors. In the second chart below, you can see China leads in EVs, batteries, and drones. The U.S. leads in quantum computing, aerospace and genetic engineering. The U.S. continues to be far freer than China. Its fertility rate is higher than China’s. It was, until this year, investing far higher sums in research and development than China. Both countries have great assets but also face huge challenges. Trump has weakened the American hand, no doubt. But if we are going to use the poker analogy so loved by New York Times and Washington Post headline writers, we’d frame it not so much that the U.S. hand is weaker but that the poker player at the table doesn’t know an ace from a deuce. And so we’ll see what chips he leaves at the table at the end of this visit and thank our lucky stars they are not playing strip poker.
