A few weeks ago we were moving some furniture into an assisted living facility for a family member and as we waited for the elevator we asked a resident waiting with us how he was doing. He said, okay. But then he said his wife of 56 years had died the day before. We expressed our sorrow for this, conversed with him a bit and wished him well. Fast forward a few weeks later and we are walking down the hall to our family member’s apartment and saw this man again. We introduced ourselves—his name is Carl—and it turns out his apartment is next door to our family member’s. We talked to him for a while about this and that and then he mentioned that his wife of 56 years had passed away the day before.
As we continued chatting it became clear he has memory issues, as many do in the assisted living facility. But his memory problem is particularly heart-rending. He is trapped in a memory loop in which forever his wife has died yesterday—perpetually grieving with time never able to heal any wounds. He showed us photos of his wife, including a wedding photo from, well, 56 years ago, where both he and his wife look so vibrant and happy that they nearly leapt off the sepia. We hope as he looks at it each day, it provides him some solace.
We provide stories of change in Europe and Asia and the fleeing of wealthy Chinese. And we offer solace from our sad story with the wonderful Love For Sale off the recently released Dr. John: The Montreux Years—an incredible compilation of live performances over the decades by Mac at the storied music festival. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, always for sale but never to the highest bidder.
Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.
As the World Turns Part 1,673
As much as we all talk about change, we don’t believe most people actually realize how constant it is. Most of us view the world when we first came to it intellectually, as we preened into our twenties and adulthood. Take, for example, the economies of Europe. People middle-aged and older probably have fixed in their mind that the U.K., Germany and France are the rich countries and Eastern Europe is poor. In fact, one factor in Brexit was some British people’s fear of immigration from Eastern Europe (and other places). But since the fall of the Soviet Union and the freeing up of Eastern Europe and the Baltics, the latter have almost caught up with the big three in terms of GDP per capita.
As you can see in the chart below, it is easy to imagine in less than a decade that Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia’s GDP per capita will be higher than the U.K.’s, and maybe France’s too. This is both because the Baltic countries have been successful post Soviet tyranny and because of stasis in the Western European countries. Of course, such growth has occurred in Asia as well. We expect increasingly to see African countries on this prosperity path. The year 2023 is a very different global beast than the year 2000. We bet 2046 will be even more strikingly different which will upend long-standing beliefs, prejudices and assumptions…except for the middle aged of that era who will view the world as it is today.
ASEAN Joint Military Maneuvers
Speaking of change, Southeast Asia is not content to just sit back and let the United States be its security blanket. After all, who knows who will be elected president in 2024. So the ASEAN nations announced that they are holding joint military drills this September. When we think of ASEAN, an association of Southeast Asian countries, we think of it as a political and economic effort, but it’s quickly becoming a security one too. ASEAN announced, “In the near future, we will hold joint military drills in the North Natuna Sea, to be called the ASEAN Solidity Exercise (ENatuna) or Asec01N.” All members are taking part, including the armies, navies and air forces of the countries.
This was announced at the “20th ASEAN Chief of Defence Forces Meeting in Bali [and] was attended by all military chiefs of ASEAN.” So defense cooperation is not new among ASEAN members but certainly expanding.
China Corner: Follow the Money
We started worrying about China a number of years ago. You’re probably worried about China too. At this point lots of people are worried about China…including some Chinese, especially high wealth Chinese. The Henley Wealth Migration report provides tangible numbers of this worry. In 2023, 13,000 high wealth Chinese (including Hong Kong) headed for the hills, or to anywhere else that is outside of China, whether valley, mountain or plains. That was the second largest outward migration of any country in the world, behind only Russia, a drunken rampager masquerading as a powerful country. And who can blame these Chinese?
With sudden crackdowns on whole industries, a Zero Covid policy and a slow growing economy, both economic opportunities and guarantees of freedom outside of the country must certainly be a great allure. If the U.S. were smart, it would try to attract these and other immigrants to help boost its economy and country. After all, the great competition for immigrants we’ve been trumpeting is just starting.
