Archive for year: 2020

It is a little known fact that we were born in Iowa City (Editor: little known because nobody cares where you were born) though we only lived there the first year of our life. So we have no special affinity for Iowans and lament their voting Bernie Sanders either second or first in their little caucus (as of this writing they are still learning to count votes–I believe they are reduced to using corn kernels as some sort of primitive abacus). But we are on record, admittedly after a glass of wine and only in front of a small group of friends, of asserting that if the choice this fall is between 75-year-old, anti-non-white immigrants, loud-mouthed, Putin-loving Donald Trump and nearly octogenarian, anti-immigrant, Soviet Union honeymooning, hectoring Bernie Sanders, then Nate Silver calculates there is a 73.5 percent chance we will renounce our citizenship, leave the country, and move to New Orleans. Just in case, we are doing a test run to NOLA next week smack dab during Carnival season where we will watch various Krewes’ parades, Shorty Gras featuring eponymous Trombone Shorty, Bounce legend Big Freedia, and Brass Band veterans the Soul Rebels, and avoid all politics and policy while eating and drinking ourselves silly. Among the Krewe parades we plan on seeing are the Mystic Krewe of Femme Fatale, the Krewe of Pontchartrain and the Krewe of Barkus, which is a parade of dogs. In the meantime, while we prepare to eat crawfish and beignets, we regretfully report bad news on world hunger, inform you of the most valuable brand in the world and note which countries are battling homelessness best. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, tossing beads of international data from our global float.

INTN will be busy parading next week but back on February 20th. 

Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.

Bad News on Hunger

We have continued to remind people in this space that the world has consistently gotten better over the years, including the last ten. But unlike China in the early stages of the Corona Virus, INTN is nothing if not transparent and honest and so we note that the latest data on hunger and undernourishment is troubling. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s latest report states that, “the decades-long decline in the prevalence of undernourishment in the world had ended and hunger is slowly on the rise.” After decades of great progress in reducing hunger, it has been increasing since around 2015. Hunger continues to decrease in Asia but is rising in both Africa and South America. We wonder if the northern African refugee crisis and the catastrophe in Venezuela explain the problem. Regardless, there are 820 million people in the world suffering hunger and instead of that number decreasing, it went up the last four years. We worry that so many of the institutions and policies that led to a much improved world the last 50 years, are being cast away with resulting negative consequences.

Branding Our World

International Need to Know’s brand is golden but what are the other most valuable brands in the world? Brand Finance has the answer in their 2020 Global 500 Report which determines that Amazon is the most valuable brand in the world. In fact, the U.S. dominates with six of the top most valuable brands being American companies. China has two companies in the top ten, including ICBC bank and the insurance/financial service giant Ping An. That both of China’s top ten companies are in financial services is a bit worrying given the reports of debt and non-performing loans in that sector. On the other hand, lower on the list but rising are a variety of Chinese tech companies such as Tencent. However, one of China’s large tech companies, Baidu, saw the largest drop in brand value over the last year. Brand Finance determines brand value based on business performance, brand revenues and other categories. As you shop on Amazon for a new secure phone for Jeff Bezos, check out the list below.

Homelessness Around the World

Here in Seattle, the worldwide headquarters of INTN, you can’t escape the homeless, whether walking down the street or in casual conversations at cocktail parties. But what is going on in homelessness in the rest of the world? According to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), homelessness has increased in about one-third of OECD countries, including in the UK, Netherlands and New Zealand. But homelessness has decreased in about one-quarter of OECD countries while remaining flat in the rest. The largest decreases in homelessness were in Finland, Norway and next door in Canada. Perhaps we should study what is happening in those countries to fix our own homeless problems, including here in Seattle.

As we stood on the platform awaiting the AirTrain to take us from JFK into Manhattan, a Metro Transit Cop asked us where we were headed. We got to talking and it was clear from his accent, his friendly but straightforward gruff attitude, his frequent use of “whaddyagonnado” that he was an old school New Yorker, the kind we remember from our youth visiting our family, staying with our grandparents on the Lower Eastside. The transit cop, Frank, was born in Little Italy back when it was big but soon his family moved to Bensonhurst in Brooklyn. Today he lives in Queens and his house which he bought in 2004 is now worth over a million dollars. He said he bought it so his now 18-year-old son can still live in New York when he is older. Because, Frank told us, New York City is unaffordable now. He despaired of today’s inequality and that people like him and his Dominican-born wife now often have to live in the far-flung suburbs. We, if not exactly despairing, lament this too. We tremendously enjoyed our short weekend in NYC but the five boroughs are no longer the creativity-generating, culture-bending hive they once were. New York needs to reform its land use policies so it can start building and the Franks of the world can again live side by side with the wealthy and poor in a teeming morass of innovation. Whaddyagonna do but examine what the elites of Southeast Asia are thinking, lament South Africa’s getting poorer, and ponder Finland’s transportation decisions. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, your unimpeachable source of global data and information.

Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.

What the ASEAN Elite Think

If we chatted with the movers and shakers of Seattle, we undoubtedly would get a different answer on what are the important issues facing the city and how they felt the city was doing than if we talked to a random group of people at Denny’s. J.J’s Bar and Grill or the Dollar Store. But this demographic is important, because, well, they are moving and they are shaking all of us aroiund. Which is why we read with interest the results of a survey by Singapore’s ASEAN Studies Centre of professionals from business, government and media throughout Southeast Asia. The top three concerns of these professionals are in order domestic political instability, economic downturn and climate change. They are also increasingly worried about China’s influence in the world. A little over 60 percent of these respondents had little or no confidence in China to do the right thing. Of those who responded that China is the most influential economic power in the world (and most did respond that way), 72 percent are worried about its expanding influence. Of those respondents who deem China the most influential country politically and strategically, 85 percent were concerned about China’s rising influence. Interestingly, “Japan is the most trusted major power among Southeast Asians, with 61.2 percent of the respondents expressing confidence in Japan to ‘do the right thing’ to provide global public goods.” The world is a very different place than it was three years ago.

South Africa Getting Poorer

Last week, we reported that all but nine countries in the world are richer today than they were in 1950. But what about more recently? Most countries economies have grown since 2014, but unfortunately South Africa is not one of them. In 2012, South Africa’s total GDP was US$396 billion but now is only US$ 370 billion. GDP per capita is down since 2014 when it was US$7582 and today is US$7433. South Africa is getting poorer over the mid-term, a relatively unusual experience. It has been two decades since we were last in South Africa so we’re no experts but it’s obvious South Africa’s leadership is not getting the job done. South Africa’s infrastructure is much more developed than other African nations—they should be able to take advantage of manufacturing moving from China and other parts of Asia as other African countries are. Let’s hope they get things turned around soon.

No Free Finnish Lunch

A friend pointed us to an article describing how Finland is declining to make public transport free. It’s one of our favorite articles of 2020 so far. First, of all, we hate the phrase “making transport free,” or any service free such as those arguing for free colleges. Nothing is free, you are merely changing which people are paying for it. In the case of public transport, a government is spreading the cost to the larger public if they don’t charge the users of the service. This may, or may not, be a good idea, but it should not be sold as free transportation. At any rate, although nearby Talllinn, Estonia no longer charges users for public transport, Finland will continue to. Why? Their research indicates that “free transport systems offer no significant reduction in personal vehicular traffic, and its impact on cutting transport emissions has been limited.” This is because, according to the research, those who shift to public transport when the charge is eliminated are pedestrians and cyclists. They stop walking and cycling short distances and start taking buses and trams. Car drivers, because it saves them time, continue to drive. FinnTech research is important to learn from.

In a meeting on Tuesday, the woman across from us noted all the distressing news in the world from strife with Iran, Australia on fire, India’s citizenship law, Taron Egerton beating out Eddie Murphy and Leonardo DiCaprio for best actor in a musical or comedy at the Golden Globes* and asked me to give her some optimism. We thought about it a moment and though the world has definitely improved in many ways since 2010, we couldn’t offer too much other than CO2 emissions were down in the U.S. by 2.2% last year. The last few years have admittedly been troubling. The world feels a bit like a friend or celebrity who appeared to have everything–a good family, growing wealth, lots of friends–who suddenly commits suicide. Sure they had challenges and no life is perfect, but it’s difficult to understand their choice. Perhaps we need to set up a suicide hotline for world leaders where they can be talked down from the precipice. While we register our 888 number we answer the question of whether globalization caused inequality, worry about Germany’s nuclear decision and raise concern about a mysterious virus in China. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, the Lambeau Field of international information and data.

*What? You weren’t outraged?

Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.

Did Globalization Cause Inequality

We have been asked to speak at a conference next week on the topic of globalization, international trade and inequality. In ten minutes. That seems as almost impossible a task as explaining it in 200 words here. We would need at least 11 minutes or 300 words to do it adequately. Inequality has gone up in the United States and many other places around the world. But did trade and globalization cause this? Trade has been slowing down over the last three or four years and yet inequality continues to rise in the U.S. China caused localized job losses in the U.S. ten years ago but overall there was a net job gain and the “China Shock” ended over a decade ago and yet inequality continued to rise. Plus, manufacturing jobs have decreased all over the world at roughly the same rate (see first chart below) but inequality did not rise in all these countries that saw manufacturing job losses (see second chart). In fact, inequality is higher in China, the alleged culprit of U.S. inequality problems, than it is in the U.S. Likely a variety of domestic policies affect inequality more than international factors. Globalization may have played some part in a rise of inequality in certain parts of the world, but it was likely minor. As with all complicated effects, there are likely many overlapping causes.

Spiting Our Nuclear Noses with Coal

This story is inspired by one of our loyal readers who has expressed skepticism over some of our clean energy posts. This reader has noted the importance of nuclear energy in their skepticism of wind and solar. We have previously noted our conflicted feelings about nuclear energy—we like it does not emit climate change gases but worry about the radioactive waste. However, Germany is learning about the challenging trade-offs of ditching nuclear energy, which they did after the Fukishima accident. A new paper asserts that “the phase-out of nuclear power comes with an annual cost to Germany of roughly $12 billion per year” and that “Over 70% of this cost is due to the 1,100 excess deaths per year resulting from the local air pollution emitted by the coal-fired power plants operating in place of the shutdown nuclear plants.” There are risks to nuclear power but there are also bad consequences for ditching this energy source for coal. Being reflexively anti-nuclear may feel good but is not necessarily good.

Don’t Forget To Worry About This!

We’re concerned that people do not have enough to worry about in 2020—the year has started out too calmly. So as you repose calm, cool and collected without a worry in the world, we provide this public service to remind you of the mysterious flu in Wuhan, China. As we write, nearly 60 people have been infected with a mysterious viral pneumonia. It is not SARS say researchers who have also eliminated as a cause bird flu, regular flu and a variety of other viruses. That’s the good news. The bad news is researchers don’t know what it is, which in some ways seems worse than if it were SARS or some virus for which we at least have some knowledge. The disease has spread to Hong Kong which is a short high-speed train ride away from Wuhan. Hong Kong, of course, was devastated by SARS and already some Hong Kongers can be seen wearing masks—this time to guard against viruses rather than tear gas. China, after an initial hesitant response, has been relatively open about this new disease. This is important since millions of Chinese are about to start traveling for the annual new year’s holiday, and thus easily transporting and transmitting the disease. Okay, you can now go back to resting and relaxing or worrying about the Middle East if that’s your jam.