Archive for category: Uncategorized

As the end of this year of trials and tribulations draws near, we were called to jury duty this week. It was our first time as a potential juror and our experience suggests that jury duty is a prime target for a cocky start-up to make more efficient. We sat in a room with pretty good Wi-Fi for much of a day until just before closing time our name was called to a jury pool. With 18 of our peers we trudged into the courtroom where the judge and lawyers asked us a series of questions, including how many would be able to participate in the trial if it lasted all week. Because our jury summons indicated it was a one-day duty (misleadingly it turned out), many of the potential jurors in our pool said they had circumstances which made them incapable of serving more than a day (child care issues, business meetings and unable to remain seated that long were all cited–should we have offered the latter a cushy pillow?). So many said they were unavailable that our whole pool was thrown out and the judge announced we would start over the next day. INTN dutifully showed up the next morning but as it turns out, the defendant did not. And since no other trials were ready, we and the rest of our fellow potential jurors were released into the wild. There must be some sort of app that could be designed to make our juror selection system much more efficient. But as we start to learn java script and wonder how we monetize for the legal system, we examine a possible link between lead and terrorism, ponder the need for worldwide energy infrastructure and discover which religions provide the most education. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, blindfolded and holding a scale to all the wonders of our world.

Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.

Get the Lead Out, Lower Terrorism?

In the late 1980s when we lived in Washington, D.C. and it was the murder capital of the country, we were mugged coming out of a Kentucky Fried Chicken and had our two-piece dinner stolen. It’s a long and, believe it or not, funny story that we would be glad to tell you over a few beers. Why was crime so bad then and so much improved now?  Not enough people are aware of the probable role lead in the environment played in the increase in crime in the United States and once lead was cleaned up and leaded gasoline banned, the subsequent drop in crime. Kevin Drum has been the leading journalist on this issue and has documented both the correlation and scientific arguments for the lead crime theory. It has certainly been proven that children’s brains are damaged by exposure to lead. So, the theory goes, when they grow up, they are more likely to commit crimes. This means if lead does affect children’s brains in a way more likely to lead them to commit crimes that there would be an 18 year or so lag for the increase in crime and decrease once lead is out of the environment. So what does this have to do with International Need to Know?  Well, the same patterns of an increase in crime followed by a decrease once lead is removed, especially leaded gasoline, are also found overseas. And, recently Drum on his blog created a map (see below) of when leaded gasoline was phased out of countries in the Middle East. He then predicts that crime will fall in those countries 20 years after the phase out. So, for example, in Egypt leaded gasoline was phased out in 1998, which if the theory is accurate, means crime will start to fall, well, right about now. Drum also speculates that this could lead to a decrease in terrorism from such countries in the coming years. He admits this is speculative but it will be fascinating to watch whether this prediction comes true. We predict if terrorism does decrease, the militaries and intelligence agencies will take credit much the way the police and courts took credit for the reduction in crime, citing “broken window” and other such policies as the heroes. We wonder many policies we enact are based on misinterpretations. In the meantime, I guess we are grateful our cholesterol is at  least slightly lower than it would have been due to D.C’s once high crime levels.

We Need More Energy

As the former head of Exxon prepares to become the new U.S Secretary of State, we stumbled across Exxon’s forecasts for energy usage over the next 24 years. They expect the world to use lots more energy going forward with huge increases in energy usage in transportation, residential, commercial and industrial sectors. From 2014 to 2040, Exxon predicts energy usage worldwide to increase 65%. As we have said before, we expect solar to increasingly have a larger share of energy generation as costs continue to fall and storage issues are finally being solved. But there are two big challenges for solar to become the dominant energy source. One, as we see from Exxon, is that the demand pie grows like an out of control Thanksgiving dinner. Even as solar generates more power, more power will need to be generated. Second, the world needs to build grid infrastructure to accommodate the new sources of power. We referenced recently a Chinese effort to build a super grid and Germany is currently spending 60 billion Euros to rebuild its grid and is expected to spend another 150 billion Euros to continue to expand its electricity distribution networks. But there is far more to do in both developed and developing countries to build new and revamp old electric grids. It is one of the great infrastructure challenges of our time and will require smart political energy to accomplish.

Where you live more important than what you believe

They say never talk politics or religion at Thanksgiving or Christmas dinners (which seems strange for the latter, but never mind). But today we stride unafraid into religion at INTN as we examine a PEW Research Center demographic study on religion and education. The study finds that Hindus have the fewest years of formal education. But, as the study itself points out, that says more about where the majority of Hindus live—India, Nepal and Bangladesh, all developing countries—than about the religion itself. For example, in the U.S., Hindus have a much higher education attainment level than Christians. Jews have the highest educational attainment level, but again most Jews live in the United States and Israel, both highly developed countries. Hindus and Muslims while behind other religions in years of formal education training, are also the religions with the largest increases in years of educational attainment. So, they’re catching up, quickly. The highest educated groups also have the smallest gender gap. So with Jews and Christians, who have the highest average educational attainment level, women trail men by a small level in terms of formal years of education (and for Jews, women do not trail at all).  More of our fortune is determined by geographical circumstance than we may guess.

We have pondered in this space of how large a role fear plays in what is happening in our world, in our revolt against post-world war institutions, in how we vote and in many other ways. The documentary, Amanda Knox, now playing on Netflix, can be seen as a metaphor for our times. One theme of the movie is our need to act tribally. There is a great scene showing Italians outraged at the acquittal of the American woman, and similarly Seattlites rallying around their city’s own. Another theme of the film is that most powerful of motivators, fear.  At the end of the film, Amanda Knox’s prescient, eerily, evocative words attempt to explain why she spent four years in jail for a crime she did not commit, but her words could just as easily describe the driving force of many of the world’s recent actions: “I think people love monsters. And so when they get the chance, they want to see them. It’s people projecting their fears,” Knox says. “They want the reassurance that they know who the bad people are, and it’s not them. So maybe that’s what it is: We’re all afraid, and fear makes people crazy.” We will continue to delve into fear and our world, but this week we focus on our continuing obsession about demographics,  examine the conundrums of China’s workforce and survey the world’s tourist slogans. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, not looking under every bed for monsters but instead trying to search for heroes in data, facts and figures.

Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.

Our Continuing Obsession

International Need to Know stands behind few in our obsession over demographics which we believe drives more of the world’s ways than is commonly realized. So when we came across a tweet (we are no luddite but we do believe Twitter has ushered in the end of the world—even though, or maybe because, we use it frequently) from Simon Cox stating that although China’s working age population is decreasing, its workforce is not, it was like placing a fine glass of whiskey in front of us–we dare not resist. As we have pointed out, China’s demographics are aging more rapidly than America’s, but that so far has not impacted the size of the workforce. Even though the working age population has decreased since 2013, the number of Chinese working has steadily increased. Why this is the case is an excellent question. Perhaps because the one child policy means there is not the familial support necessary for Chinese to retire? Perhaps because savings are not enough to compensate for a still nascent social safety net? A growing working age population, if it continues, could help China to maintain stronger GDP growth. FYI, It’s overall population is currently projected to peak in 2030 at just over 1.4 billion people.

Who will Run the Computers?

Speaking of workers, the dearth of talent in the ICT field is well known. These companies cannot find enough skilled workers. That’s certainly true here in our neck of the woods where Amazon, Google, Microsoft and others are all fighting for talent. Now comes a study showing just how few people are capable of using computers at all. The OECD tested the computer skills of over 200,000 people across 33 countries (each country had at least 5000 people tested) in the age range of 16 – 65. Participants were asked to perform 14 computer-based tasks. “The tasks ranged in difficulty from very straightforward to somewhat complicated.” The researchers then defined four levels of proficiency based on the tasks the users were able to complete with Level 1 being people who may have troubles figuring out the on/off switch on their computer to Level 3 in which the participants were able to complete a variety of relatively more difficult computer tasks. The OECD noted that 14% of participants were below Level 1, not able to complete the most simple of computer tasks. They also noted that 26% of the participants were unable to use computers at all. International Need to Know was somewhat amazed at this high percentage of people in the 21st Century unable to use a computer. I guess we won’t have to worry about them reading this online newsletter. Only 5- 8% of the population of these countries achieved the highest level of proficiency, Level 3. Singapore and Japan had the highest percent of their population achieving Level 3 with 8%. Canada and Northern Europe each have 7% of their population in the top tier. In the U.S., only 5% of the population is able to achieve the top level. In a world increasingly reliant on computers, we are apparently helpless to use them.

The World’s Tourist Slogans

Via Jason Kottke, we stumbled across a map showing the tourist slogan for every country in the world, or at least for every country with a tourist slogan. Strangely enough, North Korea does not have a tourist slogan. South Korea does though: “Imagine Your Korea.” We hope Kim Jung-Il is not doing that. Russia’s is “Reveal Your Own Russia,” which Russian fake news bloggers have also adopted for America. We particularly like the enthusiasm of Lithuania’s, “See it! Feel it! Love it!” You can never use an exclamation mark enough in a slogan!!! Finland’s is direct, “I wish I was in Finland.” These slogans reveal much about what countries think of themselves, and perhaps others. Scroll and click to find your favorites.

I tell those who are afraid of flying that it is not the flight you should be scared of, it’s the taxi ride at the end of it. I have been nearly killed in at least half a dozen cab rides in different locations around the world. Last week in a small town in Eastern Washington, my cab driver was very safe, kind and his life story enlightening. He drives a taxi because he lost medical clearance to drive a truck when he developed numbness in his hands, eventually requiring surgery to fuse two neck vertebrae together. He became a truck driver for the good pay (far better compensation than cab driving) and health care since he was a single father of two twins. He was a single father because his first wife had mental health problems, refused to take her medication, turned to drugs and alcohol, became violent and generally unstable and unsafe for their children. He met his second wife at church and is seemingly a very good father to her kids, whom he referred to as his kids, not step-kids.  He says they live in “a good Christian town where there’s seemingly a church for every two people.” But he and his wife have not been to church in eight years. For him, religion was a social valve. He is seemingly a good dad, good husband, and has experienced much economic hardship and bad luck. He told me he didn’t like his presidential candidate choices…but, he was going to vote for Donald Trump. If we had been paying closer attention to such stories, perhaps we would not have been so surprised Tuesday night. Sometimes the most foreign of countries is your own. So, this week we gaze at America briefly and what the election means for our global economic order, examine a few likely international trade policies of the Trump Administration (will it be rebranded the “Trump House”?) and then head back into the world in search of who needs talent. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, remembering that the wisest words anyone ever says are “I’m not sure.

Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.

A New World Economic Order

America and politics are not our beat. But, although there are many ways to interpret Tuesday’s vote, placing it in the context of Brexit and electoral and political winds blowing in other parts of the world, it appears people are fed up with the current global economic infrastructure, and new players, both in America and abroad, in democracies and authoritarian governments, are ready to upend our current world order. That is our beat, or is at least part of it. As we have written before, we live in the most peaceful, prosperous time in the history of humans. The institutions, values and norms created out of the ashes of World War II, flawed as they are (and all human creations are imperfect), for the most part served us well. We here at International Need to Know will dance and sing in the second line at their passing. But, all things end and the world is changing, and changing rapidly. Technology has radically transformed how we communicate with each other. We appear to be on the brink of technological changes that will transform how we work (and if we work), how we transport ourselves, our capacity for violent destruction and how our privacy is kept or more likely is not. There are profound demographic changes occurring all throughout the world. Perhaps people grasp this in their gut even if they do not fully run it through a Nate Silver algorithm. This is not to dismiss the many less savory reasons for why people want to upend institutions and voted for Brexit and change in the American political landscape. The unifying emotion driving the demand for change is, of course, fear. Perhaps this fear is well-founded and we need to change the current international institutional infrastructure and culture to address a changing world. But if so, the big question is what takes its place? No one currently has the answer and this question does not even appear to have been thought about by those demanding change. We don’t know the answer either but I expect we will take a turn on the global policy dance floor, two-stepping and spinning our partners with some ideas in the weeks and months to come.

What to Expect Internationally

Although in many areas, Trump was remarkably vague about policy, in a few international policy realms he was consistent both verbally and in writing. I think we can all assume the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) is dead. In other areas of trade, Trump has said he will:

• Tell NAFTA partners that “we intend to immediately renegotiate the terms of that agreement to get a better deal for our workers. If they don’t agree to a renegotiation, we will submit notice that the U.S. intends to withdraw from the deal.” In those negotiations he hopes to institute a fee on Mexico imports into the US that he would use to build his wall. Not coincidentally, on election night we saw the largest decrease of the peso against the dollar since 1994.
• Instruct the Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator. This basically means the U.S. would have to negotiate with China on adjusting their rate of exchange. It’s unlikely to have much practical effect and China’s exchange had and has little to do with the U.S. trade deficit with China. But, Trump says any country that devalues their currency (currently almost everyone), “will be met with sharply, and that includes tariffs and taxes.” If so, will countries retaliate with their own tariffs and taxes? I vaguely remember from history books and economics that this may not turn out so well.
• He will bring a bunch more suits against China at the WTO. At the pace the WTO resolution process works, the Seattle Mariners will win a World Series before anything of substance results from these complaints. But here too, he threatens to institute taxes and tariffs. What it will mean for relations with China and how China will react, is an open question.

In a world of short attention spans, segregated news sources and fetishes for frivolity, what people become famous for has changed. Jane Espenson, an accomplished TV screenwriter who created great episodes of Buffy the Vampire Slayer, had some level of fame previous to this week. But her fame grew to much greater magnitudes on Tuesday when she created a Pringle sculpture* that went viral. You can spend years as an accomplished writer with little public notice. But post a photo of your food sculpture on social media and–BOOM–you’re now the real deal. Regarding today’s fame factory: on the one hand, we are clearly doomed. On the other, that’s a pretty impressive Pringle sculpture. But even as we double-dip a chip into salsa, we present you with where global talent is flowing to, what China is investing in and who the big drinkers are. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, giving Buffy-like kicks to global ignorance wherever we find it.

Without further ado, here’s what you need to know.

A new paper on global talent flows reveals some interesting trends and data, some of which upends our commonly held assumptions. For example, the authors write, “Approximately 3 percent of the world’s population lives in a country different from that of their birth and, despite the impression sometimes presented in the media, this share has been roughly constant since 1960.” Okay, so maybe we should all calm down about immigration. The authors dig down deeper and examine where high skilled talent is moving to. Unsurprisingly, there has been a large increase in the flow of high skilled talent into highly industrialized, high tech economies. In fact, since 1990, there has been a 130 percent increase of highly skilled migrants into OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. The growth rate for low skilled migrants was only 40 percent. But, perhaps most startling and consequential for our world is that four countries–the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia—”constitute the destination for nearly 70 percent of high-skilled migrants (to the OECD) in 2010.” Like a high school dance, all the smart people are gathering together in a corner of the gym forming cliques. Global movement is important for the world–we’ll have more next week on how our world moves, or as may be the case, doesn’t.

China Investment

People are mobile and so is capital. Last week we talked about where Chinese are moving to, this week we follow the money. For the first time, according to Bloomberg, “Chinese companies are buying up overseas assets at a faster pace than U.S. buyers.” As China’s appetite for overseas investment continues to grow, its taste in investments has changed. A few years ago, many of China’s investments were in the energy sector but today China is gobbling up technology, consumer and brand companies. As you see in the chart below, new economy deals are far outstripping old economy. According to Bloomberg, there is also a shift from state-owned companies buying assets to private entrepreneurs buying brand companies and “marquee assets like Italian football teams, American film studios and French fashion houses.” (a merger of a football team, film studio and French fashion house could lead to the most beautiful sports movie of all time). Of course, sometimes it is difficult to distinguish between private and public companies in China. Nonetheless, we are curious to see how these investments pan out and whether there is a difference in the ROI for state-owned investments and the apparently private investments. 

Last Friday we saw the great Dr. John perform in Tacoma. Tacoma is not far from Seattle as the seagull flies, but with horrible traffic it was a multi-hour drive and it was also a long ways from Seattle culturally. Seattle, like many cities nowadays, prides itself on its sophistication and worldliness. And yet at Peterson’s Brothers in the Hilltop neighborhood where we ate before the concert, we experienced more diversity than in any Seattle joint we’ve been to. We saw more racial and ethnic diversity, age diversity, socio-economic and many other types of diversity all wrapped around a good meal and a beer. Tacoma felt more worldly and sophisticated than the wonder bars of it’s northern uppity cousin. Such a Night. But even as we boogied with the Good Doctor and enjoyed the vibes of Tacoma, we also examined Europeans’ views on diversity, robotic farms in Japan and what are the most popular books in the world. It’s this week’s International Need to Know, providing you what you need to understand around the world sans any locker room talk.